ERIA | Crude Steel Production Structures in ASEAN by Ms Miki Yanagi | AJSI Webinar 2026

Item: ERIA | Crude Steel Production Structures in ASEAN by Ms Miki Yanagi | AJSI Webinar 2026
Rating: 4
Author: PostSingularity Institute

by Miki Yanagi (ERIA) · View the channel on PSI

Humanities, Social Sciences & Thought Economics & Finance KCEconomics KCDEconomics of industrial organization

🎙 Miki Yanagi (ERIA) 👥 2K 📅 September 28, 2026 ⏱ 11 min 👁 6 📄 expert opinion 🧭 2026-10-06

Available in: English (current) Français

Keywords

steel productionASEANelectric arc furnaceenergy outlookdecarbonization

Summary

This webinar presentation by Ms. Miki Yanagi of ERIA discusses the structure of crude steel production in ASEAN and provides a tentative future analysis. She begins by introducing ERIA’s work on energy, environment, economics, and security, and compares ERIA’s estimates with those of IEA. The presentation then focuses on the current state of ASEAN steel production: unlike 50 years ago when blast furnaces dominated, now about 40% of production uses electric arc furnaces, especially in Indonesia and Vietnam. She outlines ERIA’s estimation methodology, which uses clustering and regression analysis based on per-capita steel demand and GDP, and then presents projections: ASEAN-6 crude steel production is expected to reach 150 million tons by 2050, lower than OECD’s 2030 forecast but still showing strong growth. The presentation highlights a major expansion of blast furnace capacity, largely driven by Chinese investment, and notes concerns about excess capacity. She also discusses the next phase of modeling that will integrate cost-optimal technology choices with linear programming, and emphasizes the importance of carbon dioxide removal for hard-to-abate sectors. She mentions that if blast furnace capacity share remains at 2017 levels, the abatement cost would be around $100 per ton of CO2. Finally, she lists implications such as the need to balance GDP, technological breakthroughs, hydrogen usage, foreign investment, and geopolitical trade measures, quoting ASEAN researchers who stress the importance of retiring young fossil fuel assets.

229 words

Critical Evaluation

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The presentation offers valuable insights into the current and projected structure of ASEAN’s crude steel industry, highlighting the significant shift towards electric arc furnaces and the surge in blast furnace capacity from Chinese investments. The argumentation is logically structured, moving from historical context to methodology, results, and policy implications. The speaker candidly notes that results are tentative and invites feedback, which adds credibility. However, the argumentation is somewhat rushed due to time constraints, and some parts (like the detailed model description) are only briefly touched upon. The use of comparative graphs with IEA projections strengthens the analysis, but the lack of precise citations for some data points reduces the strength of the argument.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

The presentation references OECD’s recent steel outlook and ERIA’s own modeling framework, but does not provide specific citations or links. The methodology is based on clustering and regression analysis, which is standard, yet the presentation does not explain data sources in detail. The title accurately matches the content, focusing on crude steel production structures and tentative future analysis. While the speaker is clearly knowledgeable, the scientific rigor is moderate due to the preliminary nature of the results and the absence of transparent sourcing. No public comments were available for analysis.

218 words

Title / Content Match

The title accurately reflects the content, a webinar presentation on crude steel production structures in ASEAN with tentative future outlook.

Quality & Reliability

6/10

The presentation provides a preliminary analysis based on ERIA's in-house modeling, referencing OECD reports and internal studies. However, it lacks detailed citations and the results are explicitly tentative, limiting full reliability assessment.

Key Moments

Markers derived by PSI from the transcript: the creator did not define chapters.

Cited Sources

OECD Steel Outlook (referenced) — Mentioned as a recent publication with forecasts for 2030, used as a comparison point for ERIA's own projections.

Contribution & Novelties

This presentation contributes a tentative regional analysis of crude steel production structures for ASEAN, emphasizing the electric arc furnace transition and investment-driven capacity expansion. The originality lies in the clustering-based forecasting methodology tailored to ASEAN economies, and the integration of decarbonization modeling for hard-to-abate sectors.

Pour aller plus loin :

Electric arc furnace — Relevant to the shift in production technology discussed.
Carbon capture and storage — Mentioned in relation to clean steel pathways.
Hydrogen economy — Highlighted as a potential for steel decarbonization.
Linear programming — The cost-optimization approach used in ERIA’s modeling.

94 words

Radar Profile

The profile shows moderate scores across all dimensions, with slightly higher quantitative and technical levels, indicating a content-rich presentation that could benefit from more rigorous sourcing and clearer argumentation.

Reliability 6/10